[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Buzz is pondering a flop bet in his March article. He starts by saying we need 4 callers, but then ends by saying we need 2.

[/ QUOTE ]Hi Mack - It’s an obvious error. I wrote four and then went on to write two. In truth I was thinking two at the time I did the mental calculations as I played the hand.

I don't know what I was thinking when I typed "four." Just a mental lapse. I caught the error when I proof-read and I thought I had corrected it, but somehow it slipped through. Sorry.

Two. I needed two callers, not four.

[ QUOTE ]
We are getting 2:1 for an 8/44 shot. I think needing 4 callers is more correct.

[/ QUOTE ]But we will have two chances to make the draw. On the 36/44 times we miss, we’ll have an 8/43 shot on the second chance. Combined, it’s (8/44) +(36/44)*(8/43) = 14.7/44.

I didn’t do the math in my head in exactly that way. I thought of the 35/44 as about nine elevenths, which is about 0.8. Then I multiplied that .8 by the same number of outs we have the second time (the river) if we miss the first time (the turn). So the fraction became (8+6.4)/44, or roughly 1/3. (15/45 would be 1/3).

I believe two callers is the correct number (and, rightly or wrongly, that is also what I thought at the time) to justify putting fresh money into the pot. I thought if I made my hand and managed to collect more on the river, that implied amount was not assured, but would be frosting on the cake. (And it turned out that I got some frosting too, from one disgruntled opponent).

At any rate, thanks for the correction. I'll look it over and think about it some more when my head is clearer, but at this point I think two is correct.

Regards,

Buzz