Re: 2/4 B&M - Bet or checkraise monster flop that I capped preflop?
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Exactly, you're in a B&M 2/4 game. Where do you play? Because if a reraise automatically means AA/KK/AK or maybe QQ, then you play in the worst 2/4 game in the world. It's called GAMBOOOLING.
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There are WAY more loose passive players at 2/4 than gamblers. At least in any east coast casino I've played in. In fact in any given session I'll likely see 1 or 2 preflop caps, and 5 or 6 3-bets. And I'm usually responsible for a third of them.
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These are live 2/4 players who limped, called two, and called again. No strength can be assumed about their holdings until they tell you otherwise. Again, we have no reads here.
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You don't think any strength can be assumed about their hand? There's a wide range of options, but you can certainly narrow it down a lot more than from "random hands".
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You've put four small bets into a pot of 23 small bet.
4/23 = 17.39%
You hit your set on the flop 1 in 7.5 times.
1/7.5 = 13.33%
That, right there, counts as an almost.
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Lol. Please come play in my games if you think thats close enough. Not to mention that you don't win with your set all 13% of the time.
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