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Old 02-28-2007, 10:18 PM
James. James. is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: McFadden for Heisman
Posts: 5,963
Default Re: 3/6 WPX AA river decision

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I don't think the turn is a 3bet. We've shown a lot of aggression in this hand and villain jacks us on the turn anyway? I'd 3bet this only with a specific read.

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well, i think we have a pretty decent read that tells us this guy does some goofy [censored](no pun intended [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]).

we have the best hand here a fairly proportionate amount of the time and i want to get extra value from it in a sidepot. this guy explicitly plays poorly postflop. i take that to mean getting out of line in hopeless spots like this one.

you don't feel that we see worse hands like KQ, KT here often enough to 3bet? if it is with a hand like QT or even some other semibluff hand i would prefer to 3bet the turn when he must call.

based on J's description he also lends me to believe to be the type to call down with top pair regardless of the action, and maybe even QQ if he wants to "keep you honest". sure, there a few combos of KJ and Jx out, but that is such a drawy board that hits alot of hands on the come, or pair+draws that 3betting that turn for me is close to automatic given villain's description.

fwiw, i would check behind on THAT river after 3betting the turn.

anyone tell me this, what % of frequency would you allocate to:

a)the times we have the best hand and villain is drawing to 2 or fewer outs
b)the times villain is on semibluff(4-15ish outs)
c)the times villain is on a pure bluff(0 outs)
d)the times villain has us drawing to two or fewer outs

i think "a", "b"(properly weighted), and "c" will outweigh "d" often enough in terms of frequency to merit the turn reraise.

another thing to consider that would be less of a concern for me might be if villain is the type to get really retarded with a hand like TT or 88 or something we have crushed that he can get away from with a turn 3bet, but then again we avoid the 5% of the time they two out us and since the pot's big i don't hate it.
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