Bet.
If the pot were smaller, this would be an easy check with an almost classic slowplaying hand. You will rarely lose the pot by giving a free card: if someone holds AA, KK or QQ here and they spike the set on the turn, you're going to lose the pot regardless of whether you bet, since the chance they will fold any of those hands to your single flop-bet at this limit in a B&M is exactly 0%. Thus, when they set up, the fact that you didn't bet will save you money, not cost you.
(As an aside, I think that if you rolled your hand over face-up and revealed your set, AA and KK would still fold less than half the time. Hope is a powerful factor. (Of course in this pot, they're correct to take off the turn based on implied odds, but I digress...))
That having been said, overpairs to the board will usually bet in any case, so if one of these is out behind you, you're going to get your checkraise in.
If no overpair is out against you and the flop gets checked through, a lot of likely holdings that can't beat you - like unpaired overcards and possibly smaller pairs - have a chance to "catch up" (or so they think), and the card you give cheaply now may net you extra action on the expensive streets (especially if a small pair sets up). You also have little to fear from draws: the board is calico and no matter what card hits the turn, a straight is very unlikely.
However: even taking all the above into account, you should bet. This is a nice big pot that you want to win outright, rather than worry about getting in extra bets on future rounds. There's a decent chance you will get raised by the button, and a lesser chance that you'll be checkraised by someone in front of you. Additionally, while you are unlikely to knock out a double-overcard hand (which is great, since these hands have almost no chance to beat you), your bet, and/or the raise that may follow it, may knock out a hand like Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] - and this would be great too, since this is one of the few hands that actually has a shot, albeit a relatively remote one, to bust you.
Lots of good things can happen when you bet here, and very few bad ones, so go ahead and throw in your chips.
Best regards,
Jogger
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