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Old 02-28-2007, 01:23 PM
ChipsAhoya ChipsAhoya is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: South Dakota
Posts: 749
Default Re: $2/$4 RAZZ A24 6th street decision

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He's getting almost 10:1 and his call closes the action on fourth. This ain't my game, but I can't see folding here.

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I ran a simulation with my hand vs. these two hands w/ random downcards eight or lower. With the dead aces, I actually have 26% equity vs. this range, and I do not face a raise. I understand Sklansky's 'horse race' idea, but the pot is very large here and I can't fold getting 10:1. Even if they have 765s each, I'm now 15%, which I can still profitably call.

TT, on 5th street, I'm still 17% vs. two J765s.. I only need 13% equity to call and I have it.

That's good analysis, SG. This is the HORSE game on FTP, and at $1/$2 and $2/$4, people will call w/ tens up sometimes and often nines up, even for a completion on third street. I called a hand last night w/ (J2)5 because all of the 2s and 5s were dead, but no one knew I had a jack until I won the hand. I agree that seat four has a better chance than usual to have a 6, 7, or 8 in the hole.

My 9 perfect is for sure better than seat 8's hand, even if he has a J632A. I wonder what chance we should include that seat 4 has a better hand, because he might, but it is a big coup is seat 8 folds his 6 draw, and if he doesn't fold, he loses money on the bets that go in vs. a (made?) 8 and a wheel draw, although is correct to do so due to the size of the pot.

I did in fact raise in the hand, seat 8 called two bets cold, and then the 8 three-bet. Since that signaled a made eight to me for sure, since my 9 was up, I just called and so did seat 8 again.

On the river, I caught a queen; the 6 draw bet, and the 8 called. Even though I was getting 20:1, I decided I couldn't overcall with my nine. If the 8 had somehow been bluff 3-betting on 6th street, he would not have called without the eight made on the river. Standard?

-ChipsAhoya
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