[SGspecial]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold 5th street. As played call on 6th - your a dog.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Before you throw your hand away getting 7.5:1 PO, you'd better be damn sure you have almost no chance to win. Ask yourself why seat 4 let you come again for a single bet on BOTH 4th and 5th sts. Even if he is an advanced player and was trying to slowplay on 4th it seems unlikely to me that he would do the same on 5th when you've shown you're willing to call a single bet and now he's caught bad. (Plus this is a 2/4 table, how many advanced players do you expect to see there?) You have to read him to have started with a 3-card hand since he completed UTG, but it's not necessarily a monster since he could easily have seen a playable hand and completed without looking at the other door cards. His passiveness on 4th and 5th leads me to believe he either started with a 6, 7, or 8 in the hole.

If he has a 6, he has paired 4th; a 7 and you're the dog you think you are; an 8 he paired on 6th. All of these possibilities would explain his passiveness and would be consistent with him betting out on 6th with his board. There are only two 8's and one 6 left in the deck, but all four 7's. I agree with Andy that seat 8 almost definitely has a 6 draw and will not fold even if you guys cap 6th st. Let's see what all this adds up to on 6th st.

There are 3 chances in 7 that seat 4 paired (where you have 56% eq) and the other 4 that he has an 876 and you have ~25% eq.

(3/7)(56%) + (4/7)(25%) = 38% average eq

We're assuming tho that seat 8 is coming again no matter what, so you only need to have 33% eq to make a bet or raise profitable. It's probably even more correct if seat 8 will sometimes fold.

SO in fact a raise in this spot is a VALUE RAISE and is definitely CORRECT.

Excellent post Chips, you seem to always come up with the best ones [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]