[Ruprecht]

Sabrina Sloan can sing. Suggesting that she should be 200-1 is ridiculous. Betting against a good singer like Sabrina, especially when her stock is not that high, is just going to burn you.
So are the assumptions being made after just one week. For 3 weeks, they get to pick songs that they can sing well (that does not bode well for some who still were a mess), and you will see many train wrecks as they get into theme weeks.
Others will get derailed due to poor song selection. It happens every year.
There is another situation developing.....on the girls' side, Lakisha, Melinda, Jordin and Stephanie (all good singers.....Melinda and Lakisha were simply outstanding in week 1) may be similar to Latoya London, Fantasia, and J Hudson, whose style and song choices (and yes, race ) were cancelling each other out, voting-wise.
Add in both blatant and subtle manipulation by the judges and producers (Last year, Daughtry got smoke and lasers every week, and there was an intervention to save Elliott), and you have more of a horserace than some here are suggesting.

You are going to get burned if you think week 1 is how it is going to go all year.
On the boys' side, Brandon, the guy who has sung backup for some stars, obviously has some talent. (They don't hire bad singers for backup). He also has shown real comfort on stage. Priced very low now, but could have a lot of upside.
On the girls' side, Lakisha deserves the favorite's role for now, but can she change it up, or will she just belt out every song ? Melinda has virtually perfect control of her voice, and is comfortable on stage. But she may skew to an older demographic and/or suffer from the 4 soul-divas cancelling each other out.