[MarkGritter]

One interesting tidbit I turned up recently is that, with one draw to go, a 2-card draw like 237KK is only a 2:1 favorite over drawing five.

This suggest that holding three good cards on the first of three draws may be only a modest advantage over holding zero, one, or two. As you point out, even strong 1-card draws often end up being pairs (about 10% of the time if you keep a 9 but not a T, I think.)

It may not be the best play to build a big pot predraw with a two-card draw. You may also be making drawing errors against this guy that cancel out the error he makes by getting all the money in with an inferior draw. You may also be passing up opportunities to get your money in with a bigger edge.

Say you hold 2357A while he has 27JQK. His median hand after three draws (assuming he keeps just a 9 or better)is somewhere in the 98xxx's. (Your median under the same assumption is 87532, and your median with 237QA is only a 97532!)

I'll run the numbers on drawing to 2xxxx but that will take a bit longer.