Re: Genetics prob from book that I cant get (probability type)
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1/4 is the clear answer, and should be intuitive to anyone with an understanding of poker theory. Whoever wrote that book should avoid cards. This sounds like the Monty Hall fallacy.
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Exactly.
I sat there, and reread the problem probably 5 times thinking that there had to be some wording that I wasnt seeing (there solution is correct if the problem is "what are the chances he will have the disease and not show it by the age of 50?") but there wasnt
It was just one of the biggest errors people can make in this type of problem, and Im fairly shocked it made it into print
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Right, but if that was the question, it is precisely NOT a Bayes question, and it defeats the whole point. Most students can probably multiply fractions. Understanding conditional probability was (I would guess) the point of the exercise, and the answer specifically didn't do that.
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