Re: 50/100, huge draw and I need way more chips.
possible holding against you:
set of 3/5 making you roughly 20% to win
A3o,A5o,A10o making you roughly 22% to win
AK/AQ making you roughtly 22% to win
Ax of spade making you roughly 8% to win
A10s making you huge underdog @ 6% to win
semi-bluff with air...with newhizzles imagine, and being he's a regular on 2+2, i'd be inclined to say he's a frequent bluffer, making you at least 50% to win maybe even favorite
What's the likelihood he'd play here holding this way:
with a set, there's a strong possibility he'd play it this way:
with 2p,i think he'd definitely pump more to protect
with just an "A", good kicker, i think it's pretty doubtful. i don't think he'd overplay like this with your preflop raise...what's he put you on?
with all of it (meaning A10 of spade), there's no way he'd make this play. if anything, he'd want to make a smaller raise to get more in the pot...even if you puts you on a gut shot (which i would seriously doubt), i'd make the min raise and risk the 3 outer
strictly mathematically, with these ranges, you're about a 2:1 dawg.
assuming you don't get paid off (so there's not implied odds) and he isn't holding the nut flush draw
with the money in the pot (2350+1750+4100) = 8200 and you having to call off 2350 more, you're getting over 3:1. just on math, it's correct to call
i agree you can't move in...you didn't plan correctly and now have no FE.
as for how i would have played it...i would have c/c the flop...you have flush + overs = plenty of opportunity to improve and your out of position against an agressive opponent. you can still call a pot sized bet cheaply, and represent any over on the turn if he bets the flop. best against an LAG player.
on the turn, i'd either bet out to represent the "A" and more importantly to minipulate the size of the pot for my draw or c/r representing at least 2p or a set.
with the way this played out for you and although it seems like you maybe drawing thin, my gut says call and push once the spade hits. even if you don't hit, at least he'll now you'll call OOP sometimes when the pressure is on - this may prevent him from continually abusing you later.
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