[armynixon]

You're right edenfield, the rule of fourteen does not work here. I realized that after I posted. But since the topic was raised, let's get into some math in order to deduce your opponents' hand early on. I figure you are a numbers guy because you have a poker/backgammon background and post on 2+2.
Anyway. First of all, you stated that the average point value of a card in gin is 7. Not to split hairs, but it is actually 6.54. the point average of the sample hand is 5.8 because there are 11 cards in the hand. Since reducing deadwood is not the primary concern at this point unless your opponent has a terrible hand, he likely has an average of 7.3 or so, which is pretty high. So with this information, I'm trying to find out as much information about his/her hand as possible.
My guess is that the opponent would not throw the K down so early unless he was A) using it as a salesman or B)Just made a meld from the stock. The odds of B) are very slim, so let's go with A. This means that he likely has something like QQJ with the jack suited to one of the Qs. He/she would either hope for another K to come down or for a Q (with the safety in discarding theory being used here). So that might account for about 30 of 73 pts. with three cards. Since we have two fives, you can take a leap of faith and speculate that your opponent might have two 9s, maybe even one as a gutshot to the jack. now we're up to 48 with five cards. Now it becomes extremely tricky.
The next five cards will average around 5, but he/she is unlikely to have many fives or sevens. This person would also be unlikely to give up a valuable 6 (extender) this early on. let's say they have a 6. I would say there is a good probability of them holding something like two fours, even though you have one. They could also have an A or a 2, meaning that they could get a four card run plus another for a quick knock, which fits in. The last card could be something like a suited 8 or a 9 to complete the meld.

Disclaimer: This analysis is wildly speculative and built on the basis that the numbers will average out. There will be freak hands where both players have very low or high averages. However, figuring out this type of information early on is essential. If you can figure out his/her hand before he can figure out yours, you control the hand.

What kind of comments do you have Edenfield? Of course I know that it's extremely premature to have someone's hand set in stone, but i think that this type of process could be very helpful. What other techniques do you have, besides the read of your opponent? In what other ways can math be applied at this stage of the game?