[RobertJohn]

PREFLOP

At 400/800/50, you have about 19BBs in your stack, and an M of about 9.

You open-raise 3x after two folds at an 8-handed table, and you’re min-reraised by the small blind.

Reasons To Fold:

· If you fold, you still have about 16BBs which is definitely enough to get back in the tournament.
· The small blind is showing real strength by reraising BARELY anything, out of position, over an early position raiser.
· You’re calling off 20% of your stack with a likely dominated hand without any maneuverability postflop. When you call, you have just a little over a pot-sized bet left in your stack.
· Your hand isn’t that strong in this situation. Especially when you lower the chance that he’s bluffing because a) you have a tight table image and haven’t been active recently b) you raised from EP, so he believes you’re usually strong there

Reasons to Call:

* You’re getting 3.3-to-1 immediately.


Once he reraises, IMO, you have a push/fold decision. You don’t want to invest 30% of your stack preflop just to try to spike a pair on the flop, especially when your Jack or your Ace might not be good.

If you put him in now, you’ll be getting 1.5-to-1 for your money, but if he calls, you are likely to be over a 3-to-2 dog.

I don’t think he’s bluffing often enough in a $20 MTT to justify a move over the top. Despite the good odds preflop after his little minraise, I would still fold.

POSTFLOP

The pot contains 9594, and villain bets 5400 into it, which is about ½ of your stack.

You’re getting 2.7-to-1, and you have middle pair. However, you will be playing for your whole stack, so your actual odds will be ~ 2-to-1. If you fold, you still have 14BBs and an M of 7 – not quite dead.

If you think his preflop range is super-tight (which it likely is, given the action), then you can fold. If you think he would min-raise you preflop with 77-TT and AQ, then you are getting the right price to call, but he would probably jam with those hands preflop rather than let you see a flop.