[Vorlin]

Uh boy... this is why I carry Tylenol.

Someone else said that this is a lot harder when the earlier moves were not what you yourself would have done and they were right... I love the PF raise but would have probed the flop bet for 500 and called the turn to get the SB's money too with little risk to myself. But we're here and it's time to deal with this...

The CO almost has to have 2 pair. QT, maybe Q9. I think T9 would have fired a bullet on the flop because you just can't slow play 2 pair for fear of being run down too often, so I still disregard T9 as a possibility.

What's more interesting is what the CO would put us on...

1) We raised 3X the BB pre-flop.
2) We checked the flop.
3) We jacked him up pretty hard on the turn.

What could someone raise PF with? Premium hands and pairs.

Now, what would he need on the flop in order to let an opponent have a free card on the turn and then ambush him on the river?

A flopped set, most likely 99 and up.

Considering this board, there is only one hand that meets the requirements of the PF raise and the post flop play... and that's TT.

Hero has one shot, and that's a push. It would serve to convince the CO that we have TT but even that's no guarantee that we won't be called down because we don't have enough chips to take away the odds for the SB to pay us off if he has 2 pair, which is nearly certain.

If we fold, we have 6,900 to survive with. That's do-able, so this is NOT an automatic shove. The real question is, how convinced is the SB that we flopped the set and ambushed him on the turn?

Without seeing him face to face, it's impossible to know. He is, however, considered to be a tight player... and most likely a "good" player. Good players are bluffable players... and the bets leading up to this tell a story. The story that the SB reads is that we have trips. So, if we push, that's going to be perfectly consistent with what he's read so far.

"A good bluff tells a story that the victim believes and understands." (Quoted from Matt Lessinger's book... or maybe mis-quoted!).

For me, it comes down to this. Can we out-play the table well enough to make a go if it with only 6900? Our M isn't critical yet, so we need to look at the rest of the table.

- If we think we can prosper by playing small-ball with only the 6900, then check it and muck without showing when he shows that we're beat.

- If the table is tough, we'll get picked apart if we only have 6900... so it's better to take the shot and maybe, just maybe, the SB will believe what our bets have been telling him all along. In this case, burn some incense, say some prayers and shove the chips.

Vorlin