[poker12]

Doesnt what he says in bold contradict the sentence before???? If it is 50/50 everytime how can it be predictable.


[18:25] b: First I feel that you have missed interpreted my information, and that it was posted out of context: Firstly, I was not trying to prove that a flip of a coin does not have a 50-50 chance that it will be heads or tails. It will always be 50-50 when flipping the coin. But I still believe due to the preceding events I could provide an educated guess as to what the next flip may be.
[18:25] b: Have you seen the comedy,"Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead (1991)," the opening is about the coin flip. One was loosing all his coins to his partner because he kept flipping tails, one could believe it and thought they may be stuck in time.

[18:51] b: It starts with character A, having a bag full of money, and character B having an almost empty bag of money.
[18:51] b: A says ," 98 heads"
[18:51] b: B continues on the idea that it is impossible, and gives A another coing.
[18:51] b: A says,"99 heads"
[18:52] b: B continues to pontificate the situation they are in, and gives another coin.
[18:52] b: A says, "100 heads"
[18:52] b: B continues to rationalize that they must be trapped in time.
[18:52] b: 101 heads.
[18:53] b: 102 heads
[18:53] b: .........so forth.
[18:53] b: the dialogue is interesting.
[18:56] r: \ok
[18:57] b: it is worth watching, it was well illustrated that the coin does have a 50/50 chance, and that it could also just keep flipping heads. And that is why he concluded that they must be an anomalistic situation, or time warp. because in reality we know that tails should be coming soon.
[18:57] b: even in out little experiment, I knew we were due for a head.

(we flipped 10 times 6 tails 4 heads...and he guessed the next flip would be head based on those results, so he proved me wrong)

[18:57] r: why in reality do we know that tails should be coming soon
[18:58] b: well, flip a hundred heads in a row.
[18:58] b: or flip 15 heads in a row.
[18:58] b: some time there is written theory, and application of the theory.
[18:58] b: I bet you cannot flip 15 heads in a row.