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Old 02-08-2007, 12:36 PM
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Default Re: Monotone flop deep in the 3R

This all sort of depends on how much he bets on the flop, if he bets, but I think we can bet smallish for either value against lower pocket pairs with a diamond and to fold out oversuits. This is going to feel like he is being milked and, many times, villain has told himself he'll shut down if called on the flop.

If he bets big and bluffy at the flop, we just shove the turn in his face.

In the first instance, he's on the turn and he's not going to like that. His heart is beating and he's praying for whatever it is he wants to see. He's still got a workable stack but calling the next bet leaves him with a very short stack (so close) praying for a diamond.

In the second instance, he's going to need exactly two diamonds and TPTK to call. People play much tighter on the turn than they do on the flop.

I just prefer this to pushing the flop because we get more chips when successful and, I feel, it's more successful more often against a flop calling range than an open push.

Basically, I don't really want to fold my hand but I think this is the best way to fold hands that don't clearly crush us. If he's competent, he won't make mistakes on the flop. But if he's $3r competent, he'll make fairly large mistakes on later streets this close to FT.
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