[skier_5]

[ QUOTE ]
Skier --

9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] has 11 outs against us. Factor in tournament risk-aversion and I think we prefer to fold it out than commit a 2x-pot stack with it.

--Nate

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Why do you feel we have to get it on fold on this flop? Why not check and see what happens rather than commited 2x the pot on a virtual bluff.

This isn't quite the same, but, do you shove 89cc here? AsKh, As4s? red 88?

I'm sure you could come up with a mathematical answer for the EV of shoving and I can see how it probably will be EV, but I'm not convinced it is the best play - especially since we have lots of showdown value.

One more thing, if we want to bluff with our hand, why not just bet normal? If we assign a % that he semibluffs us off the best hand (I'm not sure it is that high), we can compare it to an outright shove. Given that a shove is for 2x the pot, I think bet/folding > open shoving as well.

Also, what about considering the negatives of being called by a better hand (say KQ) when you shove vs. getting it in against a flush draw.