Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
[ QUOTE ]
This would be a horrendus call on the flop. do you think he wants to call with a hand when he has a draw? If he has a draw, he keeps his mouth shut cause he wants you to fold. This is a set most of the time, which leaves you drawing dead. if 50% of the time, you're drawing dead, 25% he has a draw, and 25% he has a AA/KK, you are -EV, and I think he has a set much more often than that.
[/ QUOTE ]
Jason, I am glad you wrote that because you motivated me to check the math, and I think you are mistaken. Even if I am drawing dead 50% of the time, if you assign the weights above (25% AA/KK, 25% flush draw), it is still a slightly plus EV call.
|