Re: Please help me understand this math problem
ok wait ill say a bit more before i go. lets use a different board to explain this.
say we have K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and using a special machine we can give our vil a range of exactly 2 hands, he has Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 55% of the time and 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 45% of the time.
preflop he raises and you call and go to the flop heads up.
the flop comes: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
he bets you call.
turn comes: 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
he bets you call.
on which of these rivers can you make a value raise?
5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]? or 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]?
i hope thats obvious enough that i made my point.
but the generalisation is to use second level thinking.
what does he think you have? does he have reason to be scared of you? what is the chance based on how you have played the hand, what he puts you on, and the board composition that he wont 3bet?
this hand is so simple because if he does have KK he knows 100% of the time he is ahead so must 3bet. it cant be generalised.
66% equity is actually pretty irrelevant.
if you can be 100% sure that he wont 3bet then you can raise with >50% equity.
split his range in to groups.
hands you are ahead of that wont 3bet
hands you are ahead of that will 3bet
hands you are behind that wont 3bet
hands you are behind that will 3bet
once you are able to do that the maths is pretty easy
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