Re: Please help me understand this math problem
Yes, him 3-betting AK does affect the math.
That's why I said "ignoring small factors". So he COULD 3-bet AK, though I'd say that it'd be rare.
He could also intend to call with AK but mouse-error raise it, or mouse-error fold KK, or disconnect fold or something.
Ignoring mouse errors, though...
Let's just say that he'll raise with AK 3% of the time (0.18 hands), KK 100% of the time (3 hands), and AA 10% of the time (0.1 hands but you only get half the pot).
Pot will be 13 bets and you need to win 1/14 of the timeish.
(7.4%?)
AK = 5.5%
AA = ....
(1.5%ish makes it about correct to call).
(to be continued... But yeah, it certainly does. As long as you call, the more often he three-bets AK even if its' a small % the better it is to raise)
like, now the math becomes -2*3 + (1*0.97+2*0.03)*6 now it's +EV rather than zero EV to raise.
|