Re: Horse Betting
I'm here [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].
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Anyway, first question, is horse racing really beatable?
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Yes, but it is much easier to beat the races as a group unless you are personally very well capitalized. For one thing the data that my syndicate uses runs about 20K a year, also if you wanted to take shots at Pick 6 carryovers you need a huge roll. Even if you plan on attacking the races yourself without data files you still going to need PPs, sheets or thorographs. Thorographs are 25$/track/day which is quite a cost to overcome with a typical starting roll.
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I also hear that you can get rebates betting online, what sites offer the best rebates/lowest vig/best bonuses/etc. for US players?
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With Pinny gone there is no clear #1 one racebook. Bodog or BetCris provide a 3% rebate on win bets (which is hopefully all you'll be betting at the beginning) and your money is safe there. I am less sure of the safety of a site like ehorse which offers 5% to high volume players. IMO a 3% rebate book and an account with ehorse exchange (ehorsex) are the minimum requirements for a serious horseplayer at this point. The Vig is about 12-14% in the win pool betting with a rebate book and around 3% at the exchange (although beware..the exchange odds are sharper than the track odds).
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Are there any good reasons to bet live over online?
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No, never, none.
As for the other questions, touts are almost always losing, and the syndicates that sell winning picks do so only to well capitalized individuals because they expect a percentage of the profits, you are unlikely to find a group like this because they don't need to advertise, they get a few customers through personal referrals and most customers are lifers. I was a 'lifer' before I was a successful handicapper myself.
Books: Handicapper's Condition Book - Quinn; The Complete Handicapper's Guide (don't remember author, its on loan); Winning Horseplayer, Beyer; Betting Thorobreds, Davidowitz
I personally don't believe there are any public forums that are frequented by winning players, as posting picks is going to hurt your payouts. If there are private fourms, I am not aware of them.
I really can't speak of the day of the individual handicapper as I have never been one. I would imagine that you would be pouring over PPs and perhaps Thorograph data of about 4 tracks. I can usually absorb a PP in about 5 minutes per race but that is after a couple years of doing it recreationally. At that rate you would need about 4 hours of prep some of which could be done during the races. Then you are going to be staring at a tote for about 5 hours to determine if you should bet, this is probably the hardest part and I still suck at it.
My overall recommedation would be to do it as a hobby at first, read the books and see if you can make sense of the PPs in ways that the average person can not. If you are totally enthralled as an amatuer and you are making money you can make the personal decision as to whether you would have the discipline and will to do this everyday. You would need a pretty substantial roll to go it alone. I would think at least 20K as your ROI may be small at the beginning.
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