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Old 01-29-2007, 02:00 AM
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Default Re: a not so hypothetical

Well you're risking a BB (your call and the money you forfeit by calling) so this spot is like kind of like when it's 2 back to you. The pot is much smaller though. The pot is say 6sb when we consider probable rake. So you're getting 3-1. So now it's more like calling a raise in the BB except your IO are cut in half as you're paying twice as much and villain has a very strong range.

So in short I think you should play very tight here.

Time to look at his range in terms of combos:

18 combos of QQ+, say 3 of JJ, 4 of AKs, maybe 4 of AKo.

Let's consider TT-22. Almost 3-1 he has a higher PP. He'll hit an A or K like 1/3 of the time on the flop when he has AK. So if we take these rough estimates we'll be behind 7/9ths of the time on the flop when we don't hit a set. 7/9 * 6/7 = 2/3 which is roughly how much we'll be behind on the flop considering sets we hit and ignoring set over set/flushes/straights. So we're getting 3-1 and we'll be a 2-1 dog.

That's not the end of the story though. We have to think about how he plays his hands. This type would likely bet the flop with AK UI-check the turn UI-fold the river UI. For PP's let's assume he will always bet-bet with JJ+ (simplistic but this is already out of control lol).

our EV (TT-22) = EV of flopping or turning a set (we hit a set-18% * guesstimate of what we make-7BB)

+

EV when we don't hit a set {82% * [EV when he misses with AK 50% * the likelihood he has AK 25% * 4.5BB - expected loss when he hits with AK-50% * the likelihood he has AK-25% * 1.5BB - expected loss when he has JJ+ (he has JJ+ 75% * 1.5BB)]}

This mess = .645BB So PP's are a call.

I can't do other hands now but I suspect that the only hands you should call with are AK or something that is very coordinated like 98s.

This is all very rough BTW. Someone might want to check it more then I can ATM
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