[Nick C]

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Grr. Something in my math above doesn't seem quite right to me. Does anybody know offhand what the odds are of flopping trips when you hold unmatched cards? I think they're better than what I said.

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Ah, I figured out my damn mistake. I took the 1 out of 25 times for two pair out of HPFAP, but my conversion of the 2.02 percentage given was way off. It should of course instead be 1 out of 50 times that we'll flop two pair with a hand like 84o.

So that's what I got (more or less) just now myself using rough math, and that same rough math gives me about 1 out of 67 times for flopping trips (I was making a simple mistake before that I won't get into when I said 1 out of 150).

So, overall, it's a little less than 1 out of 25 times that we'll flop big, and thus I'm a little more pessimistic now than I was in that long post. 2/3 of the time we'll be check-folding the flop, and flopping one pair is not a great result for us either (I'm thinking if we knew we were going to flop exactly one pair, there would be nothing especially wrong with folding preflop, although flopping one pair should be better than flopping nothing, on average.) Only very rarely will we flop a massively profitable situation, and if we're calling, we're counting on scoring big when we flop a monster, to make up for all those flop whiffs.