[sweetjazz]

Trying to maximize the amount you win (or minimize the amount you lose) with high card taken to showdown is often counterproductive to maximizing EV.

Consider the following situation. You raise preflop and only the BB calls. A flop comes, he checks and you bet. Turn comes, he checks, and you have no hand and no draw. You know that this individual is passive and a loose flop peeler. He will frequently bet the river if you check behind on the turn. You estimate that on this board he will fold to your turn bet 1/3 of the time. You have a profitable bet since there are 3 BB in the pot and you are risking 1 to win it, so you make money anytime he folds more than 25% of the time.

But notice that if you make this play, 2 out of 3 times you end up checking behind the river with nothing and losing a showdown with high card (let's ignore the possibility of pairing on the river to simplify the analysis). You can improve your amount won/lost at SD with high card by checking behind, as the opponent will often bet the river and you can now fold.