Re: Too aggro 3rd/4th?
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This analysis assumes more dead money than you actually get, I think. Also, 30% and 40% aren't that far off. Assuming 1 opponent vs. 2 and those win percentages, the extra guy only has to commit 24.8% of the pot to pay his way, but in reality is committing 33%. I'm not sure how I don't like this.
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You'll win the pot 25 percent more often heads up. You get this at the cost of a single raise. Sounds like a good deal.
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It's actually 33% more likely with his made-up numbers. But the cost is far more than 1 bet - it's also 30% of any bets that the extra guy(s) may put in, and those may be big bets or multiple bets.
I think this all comes down to a real-word number of expected pot size for 2-way vs. 3 way vs. 4-way pots when aces up is the winning hand. And that number is probably a function mostly of how loose your opponents are on 5th.
On your side of the argument, raising 3rd (and 4th?) gives you increased fold equity later in the hand against perceptive & tight players since you door card is abysmal and therefore you can represent trips or a big wired pair more easily.
Also, it's not yet been made clear that ANY of these pot size / player number / line on 3rd combinations are +EV. I know my first choice here is fold. I think essentially half of the your equity is bogus since you won't likely see past 5th without improving and roughly half that equity represents draws that don't hit until 6th or 7th. Probably more, actually, since you're drawing to 2 pair.
The only question in my mind is whether my second choice is call or raise. And I'll admit the raise is starting to grow on me.
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