Re: DERB
The data is not lying, it's just misleading you. I'm sure you've played high plenty of times. So have I! I am not appealing to J_V's authority - I have logged 5 figures worth of hands against this player also and can tell you that the amount that he loses to decent players far exceeds the amount he wins from players that are overly tight(in terms of expectation and not results). Several players who have actually logged hands with this player are saying that he makes extremely fundamental mistakes but you are just saying "it's impossible for this player to just be running well!!!" You must concede that it is at least possible that someone could run this well while not playing a +EV style. That much seems obvious. And if it is possible - why can't this player be the one who is? 5 players have come forth who are big winners in this game and others saying that they are sure he is a loser, but you stand firm in your position in spite of never having logged a hand with him.
He is not just loose and aggressive, he is also a calling station. I played a hand with him where someone raised in EP, 2 cold called and he 3 bet AJo. I capped out of the SB. I bet every street and the final board was 94259. He overcalled the river. Are you saying that this is indicative of some higher level postflop strategy of which I am not aware? That same day he called 2 bets cold in his BB in a 3 way pot with QTo against a 3 bettor who only raised 10 percent of his hands and the original raiser who raises 12. Could even Ray Zee churn a profit with QTo in this scenario, much less someone who pays off in the most obvious laydown situations? The simple answer is no, of course not. But you can continue to spout of inane claims like "I know several people who win at high limits who play 1/3 of their hands." Cool, so let's see your log of their last 100,000 hands with these stats and we can start thinking that this is more than an anamoly. The simple fact is you can't provide this. You have some anecdotal evidence that is likely from live play - which means you don't even know how many hands they play or what they actually win or lose. I just have no clue how you can argue so vehemently about something with which you have no experience.
-James
|