[Leviathan101]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that your PF RR was too big for KK and made for a tough decision on the river. LAG doesn't have to mean over betting your hand PF. Would prefer a PF raise to $8, it helps insure you against becoming too pot committed in the event that the board brings an A and it still represents a very strong hand. Pot sized bet on the flop was standard issue. Your check on the turn was weak and you denied yourself the opportunity to gain more information, but you didn't have much choice because you weren't deep stacked enough to be making your PF RR in the first place.

What range of hands can you put him on as evidenced by his decent PF raise? AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT and AK I suspect given his stats. He calls your PF RR with what? AA, KK, QQ, I think. Your previous LAG play means that he is giving you credit for AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, AK, AQ, maybe even 88 and 77 especially since your massive PF RR looks like an attempted steal.

Scenario 1. Villain had AA. Called your massive RR and rubbed his hands with glee! Raised you on the flop to see if you would pop him again on the turn or river representing a set and to test you for top pair on the flop. Check from you on the river equals no set on the flop, he bets, instafold for you. Bet from you on the river means that he has to be worried about a set or a boat or quads but he may call you down reasoning that you would not have bet the flop if you had a set on the flop. Would he give you credit for playing a good hand fast?

Scenario 2. Villain has KK as shown by his decent PF raise. Calls your RR because he doesn't want to get into a PF raising war if you have AA. Raises you on the flop to test for AA. Checks the turn because there are now two possible sets in your range as well as AA and he is looking pretty beat if you bet the river. But again, he may call you down reasoning that you would not have bet the flop if you had flopped a set. Would he give you credit for value betting TT on the flop like a LAG might do?

Scenario 3. Villain has QQ. Can you give him credit for value raising you when he flops top set AND changing gears on the turn to disguise his hand? You are goin down buddy!

Scenario 4. Villain somehow managed to call your PF RR with AK and bluff raised you on the flop. You bet you win.

Scenario 5. Villain somehow managed to call your PF RR with 77, 99, TT. He will still have to be worried by your river bet because of the possibility of a bigger boat or quads but an idiot like that is obviously going to the showdown. Only a slim possibility of this scenario, but if it eventuates you lose.

Having got yourself in this nasty pickle, I would shove the river, if I was in credit for the session, and take it like a man if he had me beat. As shown above, he has to be just as worried by your holdings as you are by his. Your bet on the flop could mean top pair leading, of course, to a rivered set. If I was stuck for the session, I would probably check-fold the river. Question is, do you want to go into damage control and check-fold what could have been a split pot or do you want to gamboool it up?

Your closing comment indicates that your read on him was AA or QQ right? Then it’s a check-fold on the river.

Regards,
puckle.

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Interesting analysis.

Frankly, I think the size of the reraise matters a great deal. Normally I'll reraise from 3-4 times the original raise. The big issue here, is that he OPENED for $3. Now, this is not totally unusual, he's done it before, but I haven't seen his hand when I do it. And I think a reraise to 8 leads him to call with far more holdings (better odds already), making it harder to put him on a hand range. I felt a larger reraise is likely to keep him more pure, and sticking to pocket pairs, AK, AQ maybe, and suited connectors. It helps avoid more random holdings that decide to play because of lack of credit and great implied odds.

I wasn't sure about QQ. I felt he would probably continue playing a set strong on the turn, for I had shown, I liked my hand enough to continue. He has to think I have at least a draw with 8 outs, or TPGK or better. It's a good spot to fire again with QQ I think.

AA worries me more. I can definitely see a raise to $3 with AA. Unfortunately, I don't know enough about him to know whether or not he will 4 bet AA preflop. Especially with stack sizes, he must be really concerned about reverse implied odds. Assuming he even thinks about them, but either way, AA is a real possiblity here.

Something I thought was very possible was a combo draw off the flop. I could definitely see it as a by the book play. Min raise the flop for value and chance of getting a free card on the turn. He takes his free card, but misses the flush draw. But he could very well take the same line with AQ.

I think this was a very difficult hand.

To respond to the people, who suggested shoving the flop.
This is a complete serious tone. I think they way I typed it might sound a bit sarcastic.
You think I should shove flop for 80 more dollars? That's about 1.5x the pot. Are you looking for a fold or call here?
What do you think calls you here? TPTK? Really?