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Old 01-24-2007, 02:21 PM
Wolfram Wolfram is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Reykjavik
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Default Re: 2/4 76suited probably poor play

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If somehow it is statistically correct to call that flop, you're still out of position. Not often do many, especially me, disagree with the wisdom of 929, but here I can't see how calling is the right play.

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Let's examine the flop call a bit.
We have bottom pair plus a runner-runner flush draw. That gives us about 6.5 outs. The pot is offering us 5.5:1 on a call and our odds of improving are about 1:6.

The problem is that his pfr-range from MP is probably pretty tight and this flop can hit him in several ways. We also probably have to dodge a lot of redraws on the river. So I think it would be fair to discount at least 1-1.5 of our outs.

Still. given that we have only 5 "adjusted" outs (making us a 1:8.4 dog) I think we can peel because we should almost always make up that 1.5BB difference with implied odds.

On top of that we might get a free turn if he's playing scared KK or JJ.

Thoughts?
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