[Kwaz]

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Hand 2. What % of his reasonably tight steal range do you think folds to a flop c/r?

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Dunno because he called the flop c/r and turn bet with 44. Really though I thought he would fold underpairs like this or raggy aces and kings.

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I think it's totally reasonable to think that he folds underpairs to your action. But I also think that there aren't any raggy kings in a 30% steal range and I'm doubtful about the aces too. I could be wrong there but I steal w/ raggy kings rarely and I'll sometimes chuck my raggy aces depending on the blinds and my AtSB is like 38%.
So I really think you're operating in a small window and making a losing play w/ the c/r.
I'd c/c and expect to improve or get a free card often enough to warrant it.