Re: DERB
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thats 95% confidence right?
Its very possible he is running 99th percentile-type good.
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No it's not...it only slightly possible. It's much more likely he is a winning player.
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Not when you have expert knowledge that he doesn't play to a 3bb/100h.
Say the S.D. comes out to say there's a 95% confidence that after these 100k hands he's at least a winning player. That's 5 people per 100 that aren't; 1/20 isn't rare. Even if it comes out 99% confidence he's a winning player; 1/100 isn't rare.
FWIW, if we could some how arrange a bet to keep his play and game conditions the same i'd take some big even money bets that his stats will be negative bb/100h for a year from today's date.
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