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Old 01-23-2007, 11:44 AM
mikeJ mikeJ is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Back to Berkeley
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Default Re: 5/10 NL, trips facing river c/r

When villain calls, he has Qx, 55, or some sickass float where he's intending to bluff later. For villain to be on a bluff, villain requires a sick sick read on you, or he needs to be a spewy villain. Neither seem applicable. So, I'm inclined to say villain has exactly 55 or Q9-AQ, with it being more likely that the Qs are suited.

Against that range for villain, I like your turn check for pot control, if you're facing 55, you also have 7 outs to the winner. It would be a shame to get c/r'd on the turn if villain was holding 55. If you're against a lower trip Qs, it's only drawing to 6 chop outs and 3 winners. If you're against QT, you have 3 outs.

Now, when you check the turn, you underrep your hand range somewhat, because opponents would expect you to bet trips again. I could easily see someone thinking your hand looks like 66-99/JJ/air when you check behind on turn.

I mention that your hand is underrepped, because it may cause villain to mistakenly value c/r w/ trip Qs along w/ value-raising QT/55. You're getting like 2 to 1. I really think the good/decent players will not mistakenly value c/r that big w/ those trip Qs, so I'm going to vote for fold, and expect villain's most likely holding to be QT, reason being that he just coldcalled the flop, and you can definitely make a case that 55 should 3 bet the flop.

Do you guys think my analysis is too specific?
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