Re: NL100....do you like this river decision
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here is my range for him:
1. i didnt put him on an ace because he called flop(i realize many players call anyway).
2. I didn't put him middle pair or something because he is calling my huge double barrel.
i figured he either has a missed draw, a set he has been slowplaying, or a Q9. I see no reason to bet against any of those on the river.
thoughts?
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It's a balancing act. He will either fold those missed draws, call and lose with one pair or two pair hands, call and win (very very unlikely, maybe AJ or a set if he's weak-tight) or c/r you with a str8, in which case you HAVE to fold.
With this board I think there are enough ways that he can call and lose that it outweighs the possibility of getting c/r.
And I don't think most players at this level are tricky enough to c/r the river on a bluff. I don't even think many would chcek every street to set up a river c/r. Some, yes, but not many.
There's no shame in value betting the river and then folding if making that value bet will make you money in the long term.
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