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Old 01-21-2007, 01:52 PM
LandonM LandonM is offline
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Default Re: Razz: I think I suck out on the river in a big pot, check-raise ri

Your post is better than 99% of posts like this.
It provides textural analysis of the opponent, your own image, his likely perception of your image and a general history of his 7th street play- as opposed to every single other post like this that provides nothing more than a hand history, so the mathies can stupidly quarrel over probability and likelihood without any regard to the most important factors that ultimately drag the pot.

Seat 2 is solid, so you know he is 3 to the bottom on 3rd with his RR and RRR. Probably a very good 3 to the bottom.
Of course, you were fine to stay in here with your 3/4/5.

4th, bet was good.

5th is very interesting. Seat 8 is completely retarded to be tagging along in this hand holding an open pair and a J against two players who are clearly so much better off.
Your read on S2 is that he's solid, so we can pretty much discount he's betting a paired ace in hopes of scaring off two players who bricked?
What range can we put him on here? We know he's at least four to a 6, made to a 9 with two streets to go, against the retard in S8 and you with one brick (J). He's in pretty good shape, but I wouldn't fold your hand either, since you're getting the right odds to draw, knowing that even if S8 catches gold on 6th, he's still only good to four cards so he won't be betting out with it and you won't get stuck between him and S2 raising each other.

6th, in my opinion, S2's bet with a K was stupid, particularly if he is a solid player. He obviously is trying to shed the retard in S8 and get it heads up between you since he is board-locked for a better hand. But it does tell us a little something. He's very committed to this hand and will show it down. A consideration for 7th.

7th- You know from gameplay history he will lead with a 9/6 no matter what, plus he has all the tempo going into the pot so we know a bet is coming- and it does.
In my opinion, this is a call with your 8, after checking. I don't think you are strong enough to reraise. Check-raise is outright gambling since you don't know if he improved.

Bet is the worst play on 7th because you (holding only an 8) face the possibility of being raised by a player who is extremely committed to a hand, may have caught good on 7th and has all the tempo coming into the showdown.
Check/Call allows you to show down your mediocre hand that *might* be good, without involving too many bets in such a marginal situation, or being denied a showdown if he raises back.
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