Thread: HE Odds
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Old 01-21-2007, 09:26 AM
BruceZ BruceZ is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
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Default Re: HE Odds

[ QUOTE ]
39/50 * 38/49 * 37/48 * 35/48 = 65,3% chance not hitting 4 flush on the turn means a 34,7% chance of hitting <font color="red">4</font> flush on the turn. <font color="red">(Changed 'e' to '4' - BZ)</font>

[/ QUOTE ]

You meant 1 - (39/50 * 38/49 * 37/48 * 36/47) = 65,3%, BUT 1 - P(no flush cards on board at turn) does not equal the probability of a 4-flush on the turn. This is just the probability of at least 1 flush card on board at the turn.

Not every problem should be done with the 1 minus the probability trick. See my post in this thread for the calculation.
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