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Old 01-20-2007, 06:51 PM
Kasane Kasane is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 906
Default Re: NL25 AA vs drawy board

You just want him to make an FTOP mistake -- not just win the pot. If you bet x amount of the pot, he will not be getting his odds, with the effective stacks. I'm too lazy to figure it out, but it's probably about 2/3 pot and depends on how strong your read is that he is on a flush draw and whether you'll stack off if the last heart hits.

However, you've got the Ah -- How sure are you that he has the flush draw. That takes a lot of his weighted heart draws out of there (he's more likely to call Axh than a lot of other hands pf). Also, he's not likely to have the x2h at all (K2h TAG calls in FR???) -- If it was Js5h2h, he could have the draw and pair (KJh, QJh... etc) but not here enough to even consider it.
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