Re: Big hand against TMay\'s bro - Tom - $15,000 Main Event at the Bellagio
(w/o reading other replies)
yes, v interesting hand.
PF - standard call. I put him on TT+ AQ+ with KK and AA and AKs more likely
F - I like the check. he either flopped a monster like KKK33 or he missed like AQ (maybe it's A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) AJ or he's got an under pair and is scared of the K. the fact that he always c bet before makes me lean toward him slow playing something big or a draw.
Turn - he bets and then min raises you - more evidence that he's got a monster hand. or trying to build the pot for the draw?
River - he's thinking about a PSB, then adds chips - why? maybe he doesn't want you to call? maybe he had A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. If he had a monster, wouldn't he bet less in order to make it an amount you'd bet you'd be more likely to call? He's going - "OK, if I pot it, that should get him to lay stuff down. No, I better add some chips, make sure he folds." Or he saying "He has 9s full. He'll call a big bet, like a PSB; maybe more?"
Your M would be 48 if you called and lost. It's a WA/WB. You can put him on the second nuts or a missed flush draw, ace high. I think it's a close call, but I would fold here. But I can't fault you for calling. I wouldn't push.
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