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Old 01-19-2007, 05:09 PM
martybonus martybonus is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: knife-wreennnnnch!
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Default Re: KK; turn decision

:grunch:

which villain has those stats, CO or UTG+1 ?

preflop looks standard and fine to me. at this point you're stoked.

flop is also decent, but a little scary depending on the range of your cold caller and UTG+1. assuming the stats you posted apply to both, there are any number of possibilities. Most of them are no big deal (AT may feel good to them but you've got it trounced). looks to me the only hands you're afraid of are AA, TT, or anything with a 7 in it. Seems unlikely that they'd call a pre-flop raise with 7T, even with their loose stats. Hard to tell with loose players. Maybe A7? but wouldn't they have raised your bet here if they had trips or a full house (7T)?

I also think the bet on the turn is entirely sensible. You're still in a pretty good shape. I wonder why he raised your bet here. Is he advertising that the J made his hand? If he's got J plus anything other than a 7 or another J, you've got him squashed.

I think you're idea of a 3bet here is entirely defensible. As you (and now me, superflously) have explained, you've got most of his hands beat. TT, JJ, A7, J7 (then hes' the new mayor of suck-out city) T7 (big suck-out again) are really the only things you're scared of. A 7 holding seems unlikely as there are two on the board already and as you've noted, AJ is more likely that JJ as there is already 1 J on the board. So you can afford to play this aggressively.

A 3bet might also isolate CO and make UTG+1 leave. this may or may not be a good thing but if he's drawing to one of the two possible flush draws on the board, then maybe you want him out of the pot now anyway. so yep, the weight seems to be on a 3bet here.
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