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Old 01-18-2007, 06:08 AM
grizy grizy is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2006
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Posts: 611
Default Re: analysis (1)

calling on turn is okay although I think a fold is right. For the river, remember, this was a nothing pot with nothing invested. If he truly is tight aggressive... it's unlikely you're not staring at the nuts. There is a chance you're looking at Q high straight, but tha'ts very very doubtful. Just remember, to make this call, you need to think you got 33.33% of the pot equity (after call). Using your ange, 80% straight, so 20% of the time you win outright. So... in order to squeeze the last 13.3% out of the 80%, since Q high straight would split, you need to think about 27% of his hands is Q high straight at this point.... or rather, a third of his straights would be Q high. In my experience, the odds aren't quite that high the way the hand was played... but if your read was different, call. Just remember, you said he is tight aggressive and he believes you're a bit of a calling station... those factors combine to spell the nuts to me.
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