[Roadstar]

Having thought about this a bit more, I'm thinking this could be a push if I thought villain is calling with trips aces and full houses (oversimplifying first)

Lets say villain would raise AJ+ preflop. So the range is approx A2-AT.

Of the aces, I'm ahead of AT-A7, A5, A4. 8 combos each so 48 combos. I'm behind A6, A3, A2 so thats 6 combos each, so 18 combos.

Ignoring other possibilities, I would be ahead 73% of the time so probably around 70% if you incl. higher runner flushes and other boats.

So definitely I'm calling the raise. To reraise however, we probably need him to call 70% of the time with a worse hand (trip aces) for a push to be profitable? i.e. ahead 70% of the time, of which if he calls a losing hand 70% of the time, he effectively loses 50% of the time? Does this sound right? (plus the dead money, so he needs to call a push just over 60% of the time with a worse hand)

The above is analysis for a push only though, so I dunno how to estimate probabilities for non-push reraises...

Any thoughts guys?