[Richas]

Looking at it where you know the additional info will be available throughout first -I think that the edge would be significant and would be more significant still short handed but that understanding when it is most and least valuable is important. I think we need to look at the edge in different hand scenarios then look at the effect on the tournament as a whole.

For a lot of hands (75%?) it would make relatively little difference as whilst I would know of two dead cards they will have been folded before I act. This information alone is valuable as it applies to all hands I play and could lead me to not play some hands (suited connectors or small pp if my outs have been used) but it is a small additional edge say 1-5% assuming the information is used well. The value of the information will vary from hand to hand and importantly it is an edge against all other players at the table. Sometimes though it will make no difference as I would have folded anyway.

For the 25% or so of hands the player on my right plays I have much more information, this information will sometimes allow me to play more hands but on other occasions will lead me not to play. I would assume that whilst I would play more hands to the flop less than half of the time the player on my right plays I would also choose to act post flop, after all he is playing his better hands and I would want to play post flop against his hands with one that is +ev without the need to bluff (he controls the response to the bluff) so depending how tight they are I would only be involved against a player whose cards I know 15% or so of hands overall, possibly less and certainly less post flop.

In a proportion of hands against the player on my right I will also be playing against another player with unknown cards. Two different scenarios in terms of edge. Without another player my edge is huge, I could of course still lose the hand but I would always lose the minimum commensurate with building a +ev pot and always make good +ev decisions. The edge here is probably +80% with another player involved my edge is much less, say + 20%.

Now for the strategy. Clearly I would want to be involved against the opponent on my right HU quite frequently as with the large edge it should be very +ev but I’m by no means certain this would be the only scenario I would play as it would happen too infrequently (and some of those they win anyway) so sometimes I would need to play him with other players involved too where my edge is still significant. Here we have a greater risk of going bust so playing relative small ball and avoiding all ins to wait for the sure thing makes sense. Again this may not be often enough so I would probably have to play some other pots vs unknown hands but I could afford to choose only the most +ev situations with low risk (against much smaller stacks or avoiding going all in).

Overall this advantage should make a big difference. It should allow me to build up relatively early allowing low risk play overall with at least some edge in all hands I play. I could decline slightly +ev scenarios in favour of much higher +ev scenarios. Essentially so long as the hands against a known opponent came along frequently enough I should be able to maintain an average or better stack throughout the tournament, playing patiently, avoiding all in confrontations with others and until post river (or his drawing dead) vs the player on my right.

If I had a 1 in 2000 chance without this advantage I’d estimate that given a sensible strategy I would be better than evens - if nobody else adjusted their play. Playing so tight weak though I suspect they would and it may not be possible to avoid risk to significant portions of my stack throughout the tournament so maybe 1 in 20 chance of winning? It’s also possible that with a perfect strategy you could pretty much guarantee the win but I’m not sure quite what that is or how you would prove it.

Not knowing the informational advantage will continue – you’d probably seize most opportunities to play the opponent on your right, almost regardless of your cards - often for a raise to prevent others being involved. You would mostly be entering the hands with dog cards and looking to bust him so quite often you would be forced to fold on later streets, you would need to accept the risk of getting involved as a dog but your informational advantage should outweigh this over several hands. The big difference though is that you would be much more willing to accept a +ev situation that risked your tournament life that you might decline knowing the continuing informational advantage. If he had 9 outs and pushed (covering you) on the turn without knowing that you would continue to see his cards you would call as it is highly +ev, if you knew the free information would continue you could choose to decline knowing further +ev situations would arise without the risk of going out and losing your future edge.

In all then I’d say that not knowing the information will continue makes a huge difference. Indeed it may increase the likelihood of going out early with nothing, for the very best players this affect alone might even lower your overall expectation even though the individual hand was highly +ev.