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Old 01-17-2007, 08:38 AM
PropPlayer PropPlayer is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 1,235
Default NFL Future bet situation

I made some wagers very early this season (preseason through week2) on the Saints to win the Super Bowl and on the Saints to win the NFC.

At the time I believed the odds were good so I bought them with the intention of selling off them later when they gained some equity. After the Saints beat the Cowboys in Dallas I decided I would hang onto these bets. In fact the Saints were then 13 to 1 to win the NFC so I bet even more on them.

I’m in a spot now where my bankroll will increase 38% if the Saints win over Chicago and 83% if they win the Super Bowl.

I want to hold onto these bets but then part of me is questioning if doing so would be irresponsible.

I realizing hedging just to hedge is –EV, but what I’m wondering: in this case would not hedging be poor bankroll management.

I think It would be difficult at this point to convince myself to hedge these bets, but I’m just wonder what the take is of others on the subject, keeping in mind the percentage of possible bankroll increase and that my original purpose for making these bets at the time was to sell them later. Is deciding to hold the bets now poor bankroll management?
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