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Old 01-17-2007, 06:38 AM
blackize blackize is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Maryland
Posts: 5,037
Default Re: Probably the weakest ive ever played a big flop

[ QUOTE ]
If villain has a made hand the optimal play for him, given that he knows our hand, is to wait for a blank turn card and then push all-in with a big enough bet so we don't have odds to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

It looks like that is exactly what he is setting up. His flop min 3bet is a pretty strong move, but you see lots of two pair hands, sets, the infrequent AA, and other combo draws here. If we think the villain is thinking enough to try to get the pot big enough to be able to shove the turn then we have to push the flop.

I think just calling the flop sets you up to be pushed off a hand with a ton of equity and reduces your implied odds(he probably check folds to a club unless he has ATcc and maybe AcAx).

You've realistically got about 40% equity and given the size of the pot even before you call on the flop you have enough to push. It's somewhat high variance but this is a hand that I really want to get to showdown with. This range for him below is pretty tight, I think AcKx, AcAx and some other drawing hands are in his range as well as possibly K2s or J2s which only improve things.

12,870 games 0.005 secs 2,574,000 games/sec

Board: Kd Jc 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.065% 37.95% 00.12% 4884 15.00 { KcQc }
Hand 1: 61.935% 61.82% 00.12% 7956 15.00 { KK, JJ, 22, KJs, KJo }
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