Re: Rate This \"Edge\"
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If you knew the exposed hands would continue then you should win better than 1/35 times, as your chances of winning after making the final table go from about 15% to 90%. So divide 2000 by 6 just by that. You also have a huge advantage short handed before the final table before goint to 1, 2 and/or three tables. Divide by three just for that. Getting to that point must be at least three times as likely, so divide by three again. 6x3x3=54, 2000/54=37, so I estimate your chances of winning to be better than 1 in 35.
If you didn't know it would continue then you would get involved with other players way more often.
Maybe you win at the final table about 1/3 times, move on short handed twice as likely, get there twice as likely. 2000/8=250. So about 1/250 times.
These are all just estimates, but these numbers are mainly driven by the huge advantage short-handed.
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This is the way I was thinking of going about the problem, but I didn't feel like estimating numbers. If anyone's up for it, I think it would be worthwhile to discuss the numbers used in this way of attacking the problem.
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