analysis (1)
Thanks for your comments. I am still wondering what I should have done. I'll try to analyse the EV of different plays a little more specifically.
Here is the way I read the hand :
Preflop, I do not raise because of the two posters ; a pot raise makes me commit a too large portion of my stack with a marginal hand, and a smaller raise do not guarantee a 2 or 3 way hand, basically meaning I have to hit a Q to still be in that pot, as I do not like bluffing into more than two
opponents especially if there is a newcomer among them. Turn my hand to QQT9 or better and I raise 3 or 4 BB.
Flop : raising would have been fine, and I would have done that if the money was deeper (or shallower) or against a more predictable opponent, who would reraise with nuts, fold 2 pairs and call with a set or a good draw. But here I knew there was a good chance that villain would reraise with a large range of hands and fold the rest, rarely calling.
After the flop bet, I put him on 9Txx, a 15+ draw, two pairs or a set (but since he bet into the whole field, I do not expect to see 2 pairs or a small set very often). I think a raise would make him fold 2 pairs and a set (since he cannot have top set), and raise most of the rest, except his worse 9Txx and draws. I am not very good at calculations, but I would say a raise would make him fold 25% of his hands, call 25% and reraise 50%. The problem is that I think I am approximately a 60-40 dog against his raising hands. And if he calls, I cannot think of a turn card that is both good for me and that would not make him fold for any substantial bet. If we consider he will give me a free card on turn and I take it, it means that, not taking into account any other bet, I can expect to win 100$ (20+80) 40% of the time, and lose my 80$ 60% of the time. So let's say my EV if he calls is 0.
My EV if he folds is 40.
If he reraises and I fold, my EV is -80
If he reraises and I call, I have to go all-in ; I win 320 40% of the time and lose 300 the rest of the time, so my EV is -50. So I should call.
So my total EV for raising on flop is :
25%*0+25%*40-50%*50= -15$
I do not think I could change the numbers enough to turn this into a very profitable play. Basically, with such a small pot, it is not a good idea to raise with a hand very likely to be behind if reraised. Give me a flush draw or KT with my pair of ladies, and I raise every time. But here it is not very good.
I could have folded the flop, of course, but I was so excited... I think I can turn a call into a profitable play, but that it is better to fold than to raise.
Turn :
Now the raise makes more sense. But the thing is when he bets that turn card, I know that :
1)he has at least the same straight as me 80% of the time.
2)he probably has redraws (2 possible flush draws), but I do not know how much.
3)he will not fold any straight if I raise, but maybe I can make him fold his Q-high straights (and maybe sometimes K-high straights) on the most dangerous rivers.
4) he will very rarely bet as a bluff on the river ; after my two calls, he musts see me as a calling station, and I do not see any good semi-bluffing hands on flop that would have bet such a dangerous turn without having improved.
So I am in a situation where I do not gain much by ending the hand now. If I raise, he will fold maximum 20% of the time, and I think I am a slight underdog, maybe even money if he calls : if he has KT (let's say 50% of the time he calls my raise), my EV is then 25%*400-75%*290=-120$ ; if he has a Q-high straight with some redraws (50% of the times he calls), sometimes more than me but often a little less, let's say I win a little more than half the actual pot, perhaps 90$ (corresponding approximately to me having 3 or 4 more outs than him). So if he calls I lose a little, approximately 15$.
Then the EV of raising is : 20%*110-80%*15=10$, better than folding.
OK, I'll continue later, cause I think the EV of calling is better, but the calculations are more complicated.
All the comments are welcome.
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