[ggbman]

Aba,

Taking yourself and CTS were notable examples of excellent players, two of the best, and citing it as an example of how little variance affects your results is silly, and i don't understand how someone as intelligent as yourself is trying to use this as argument against what i am saying. You guys both play with larger edges than most players. But like i have said numerous times. dat indicates two things:

1 BB/100 is a very solid earn in high stakes limit games online these days

1 BB/100 winners can have 1000+ BB downswings without tilting at all

So agruing with me and saying that you think people whine too much is going to change that. Do a lot players attirubte their results to variance too quickly? Yes, which is why i said that you made a good point there. But just because you and a few of your very sucessful friends haven't encountered that kind of variance doesn't mean that others can't, and that it occurs legitimatley without them tilting off tons of money. You should realize that arguing with the numers i provided is silly. It's not meant to provide an excuse for people, but at the same time the most sucessful players are the most likely to have NOT encountered this type of variance logically. It doesn't mean you, CTS, ozzy and Co are not hands down the best players, but it is obviously less likely that you would have encountered as much negative variance as many others have. I don't really care why "lucky" anyone is, but i get frustrated when a great player such as yourself makes comments about variance which are just that far off, it can and does affect some people to a much greater extent than you seem ready to accept.

And BTW

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but lost 15-20 more 100K+ pots over the course of the year

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This is actually much more improbable than you are making it out to be assuming the money went in as a 50/50.

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It's not more probably than i was suggesting because my whole point was that it wouldn't take much for that to [censored] up someones year. What if it was 30-40 pots? That's probably not even 2 standard deviations away from normal for people playing 500k-1 millions hands a year and it will shave 4 million dollars off their earn. We aren't arguing here.

Anyway i don't really feel like arguing about this any more, it's just stastical facts that i am citing here and i', not going to waste my time or your arguing the exent to which people exaggerate the role of variance in their downswings. We can agree that people do it to various extents, and just remember that there is no way you have seen anywhere near antying in a half million hands, no one has.

Gabe