[tdarko]

[ QUOTE ]
You do know as of before the bowls, the Sagarin rankings, the most accurate predictive model, shows Louisville as a minimum 4.5 pt favorite over any team in the SEC?

[/ QUOTE ]

I am a follower of Sagarin too and if you are going to throw numbers around at least let them be correct.

College Football 2006 through games of December 16 Saturday the BCS uses the ELO_CHESS from here
HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.67 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR
1 Ohio State A = 100.63 12 0 72.08( 40) 1 0 | 3 0 | 102.96 1 | 98.25 1
2 Southern California A = 94.19 10 2 80.98( 2) 1 0 | 6 2 | 94.91 4 | 92.89 3
3 Michigan A = 93.19 11 1 75.38( 13) 0 1 | 3 1 | 99.32 2 | 88.95 7
4 LSU A = 92.07 10 2 73.40( 29) 1 1 | 2 2 | 94.33 5 | 89.63 5
5 Louisville A = 91.99 11 1 72.58( 36) 1 0 | 1 1 | 89.62 13 | 94.12 2
6 Florida A = 91.62 12 1 74.48( 18) 2 0 | 5 1 | 98.57 3 | 87.02 11
7 California A = 89.38 9 3 79.09( 6) 0 2 | 4 2 | 90.55 11 | 87.69 8
8 West Virginia A = 87.18 10 2 71.79( 42) 0 1 | 1 1 | 84.85 17 | 89.18 6
9 Boise State A = 87.11 12 0 63.83( 100) 0 0 | 2 0 | 93.43 6 | 82.50 20
10 Tennessee A = 87.06 9 3 76.52( 11) 1 2 | 3 3 | 90.01 12 | 84.11 15

Louisville on a neutral field would be a dog to LSU and would be even money or -1 to Florida. These numbers as you see were before the bowl games.