Re: Fold Equity - A Couple of Questions
Ok, so the pot is 100 (not sure how to make a pound sign) and the flop action is opponent leads for 50. We're comparing two possible actions, namely a raise to 250 which our opponent covers, or a fold. The fold, as always, has an EV of 0. The raise costs you an additional 250 if he calls, and wins you 150 if he folds. So the EV of the raise is (P(fold) * 150) - ((1 - P(fold) * 250). The play is break even if it has the same EV as the fold, or 0. So we solve:
(P(fold) * 150) - ((1 - P(fold)) * 250) = 0
(P(fold) * 150) - 250 + (P(fold) * 250) = 0
P(fold) * 400 = 250
P(fold) = .625 = 62.5%
Alternatly, you can do the math via "odds" or ratio notation: we're risking 250 to win 150 (5:3), so we need himn to fold 250 times for every 150 he calls, or odds of a fold of at least 5:3. As a percent rather than a ratio, that 5/(5+3) or 5/8 or .625 or 62.5%. Luckily we got the same result [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] I find the "odds" style computation to be much easier at the table.
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