Re: A Favorite Stock, NICK
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A little OT: DC, are you going to be posting regularly in your blog? I'd be very interested in reading.
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I hope so. I just posted a more detailed analysis of Scorpion Man's concerns. To summarize, here is a look at some key metrics from the last 8 years that show this year isn't totally out of whack historically.
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Total Delinquencies %
2006 (Q3) 2.72%
2005 (Q3) 1.99%
2004 (Y) 1.54%
2003 (y) 2.20%
2002 (Y) 2.32%
2001 (Y) 1.90%
2000 (Y) 2.49%
1999 (Y) 3.03%
Charge Off Percentages
2006 7.26%
2005 5.83%
2004 7.26%
2003 8.13%
2002 7.63%
2001 6.16%
2000 5.88%
1999 6.84%
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Don't delinquencies lead charge offs? That is the worst number to have go out of line and its at multi year highs...and the one that is not subject to "conservative" accounting, like chargeoffs.
To me, you need a good reason to believe that that number is a blip and not a trend to own the stock.
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