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Old 01-03-2007, 08:21 PM
bmk67 bmk67 is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Stacking donks & robbing nits.
Posts: 193
Default Re: How do I handle these situations? NL$25

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Poker is a game of statistics. Play it like one. Someone 3-betting you preflop doesn't always mean AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's expand on this, borrowing from what I said earlier. Recall that I said that I would fold here only if I knew villain would make this play with aces or kings. Why?

When you hold kings, there are six ways for villain to have aces, and only one to have kings. If no other hands are in his range, we're a huge dog 6 times in 7, and a huge favorite 1 time in 7. Unless the pot is offering us tremendous odds to overcome the fact that we are way behind villain's range, we fold.

Few players are that nitty, however. Observe what happens when villain includes QQ and AK in his range as well - when we hold KK, there are 6 ways to make QQ and 8 ways to make AK. Now we're a huge dog 6 times in 21, a coin flip 1 in 21, and and a substantial favorite the rest of the time. Calling or pushing here is always +EV here, because we're way ahead of villain's range. If we win the expected percentage of times we're ahead, this is +EV even if we never win when we're behind.

Now imagine what happens if you add lesser hands to the range. I've seen enough donkeys 3BAI with AJo and lesser crap to know that calling with kings is a moneymaker at these levels. Variance is a bitch, but that's why you play at a level your roll can sustain.
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