Re: Crazy Pineapple
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I loved Robert Gasper's crazy pineapple article--very well written and very well thought out.
[/ QUOTE ]Mack - I agree. An excellent thought provoking article!
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Situation #2: Same as above, only Mr. Tight folds to your flop bet and the loose small blind calls. (5 small bets) Here the AJ looks more attractive against the small blind's range. You are not interested in maximizing outs as much as extracting value in this situation
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I'm not so sure about extracting value here. In fact, I think I'd prefer to play this hand against Mr. Tight rather than against the small blind.
[/ QUOTE ]But that's not an option; Mr. Tight has folded.
The question in my mind was whether I'd want a jack kicker or a deuce for the straight draw. S.B. has a wide range of hands, and they don't necessarily include an ace. Keeping the jack as a kicker is only worthwhile if S.B. has an ace and cannot muster up a better kicker than a jack.
But if S.B. does not have an ace, then Hero's kicker doesn't matter.
If S.B. does have an ace, then if he also has a king, queen, four, or three, Hero is behind in keeping the jack. That's 14 cards, and all S.B. needs is one of them to be ahead of Hero if hero keeps the jack. 14*13/2+14*30 = 511 ways.
Hero is tied if S.B. has an ace with a jack and another card. 3+3*27 = 84 ties.
Hero is ahead by keeping the jack if S.B. has an ace with any other two cards. 27*26/2 = 351 ways.
Thus if S.B. has one ace, Hero figures to be behind by 351 to 511 with 84 ties.
If S.B. has an ace plus a king, queen, four, or three, then Hero is dead if he keeps the jack - unless he catches a jack and S.B. doesn't improve.
If S.B. has an ace plus no king, queen, four, or three, then Hero is ahead unless S.B. improves and Hero doesn't.
I think Hero has a better chance against an unknown hand if he keeps the A2. The jack as a kicker in C.P. just isn't all that good, and here (if S.B. doesn't have an ace or if S.B. has an ace plus a king, queen, four, or three) it may be unnecessary.
Penultimately, if S.B. happens to have a set or two pairs, threes and fours, then Hero does better by keeping the deuce.
Lastly, if S.B. does have an ace plus a four or three, and if hero keeps the jack, Hero has three outs (the jacks) to improve and beat S.B. On the other hand, if Hero keeps the deuce, then Hero has four outs (the fives) to improve, plus the back-door flush draw (worth almost one out relative to the fives).
10*9/2 = 45 ways for backdoor flush.
6+4*46 = 190 ways for a five.
Maybe I'm missing something, but I'm keeping the deuce and throwing the jack against either T.P. or S.B.
That's not to demean the article or the author's point of view. It's an excellent, well-written, thought provoking article.
Regarding the other, flopped straight, hand:
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Anybody else think this is not a mis-click, but a clear call?
[/ QUOTE ]I don't know. I'd be very tempted to raise. With this flop, I don't think Hero wants anyone to get a cheap draw. Lots of scare cards to come on the turn.
Buzz
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