Re: A7s
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With the ace high flush draw, there are now no better unpaired hands that will fold. A9 is never folding the turn on that board, and nobody is folding a pair ever in this situation. BTW, I understand that saying words like "never" is not a good idea, and when I say "never" by definition I have to be wrong, but I do believe assuming A9 or any pair is never folding will be the mental model that will lead you to the most correct decisions.
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Obviously semi-bluffing A7s on the turn makes sense only if we can induce some close folds. You say a LAG won't release decent cards on this turn. Not half the time; not one time in five. How sure are you?
Do not overlook what a 5/10 TAG is telegraphing when he bets again. It's certainly not "well, here goes nothing". Pounding the pot from the small blind against a CO raiser commands a good deal more respect than other resteal situations. These two have no history together to suggest otherwise. With multiple overs including a queen on board and a tight bettor representing premium aces at worst, 55 does not look like the right kind of hand to get stubborn with.
Your showdown route might still make A7s the most money, though. It's a line I too often neglect when draws are in the picture.
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